Dan Parsons / National Defense Magazine
The goal is to demonstrate better accuracy in predicting near-term and middle-term events than an opinion poll by the end of the four-year experiment. In the first year, Warnaar is seeking to achieve a 20 percent improvement over traditional polling methods. If its predictions turn out more accurate, the program will be made available to government decision makers.
Questions from informed policy makers could then be fed into ACES and predictions would be based on weighted answers from program participants.
Filed under: Communication, Metrics, Security Strategy, Survey
